Predictions for 2006 are all over the Internet. Some are wacky, many apocalyptic. Closer to home, Edward J Epstein has had a look at the future of Hollywood in Slate—not what it is producing, but what it is facing. He cites trends which, he says, will change the industry forever. Among them:

”One doesn’t need a crystal ball to see that Hollywood’s future is now inexorably tied to the small screen. Just look at the studios’ own internal revenue numbers. Before the invasion of television, the big screen (aka movie theaters) provided 100 percent of the studios’ revenues. Now it accounts for less than 15 percent. The small screen—which includes computers, portable DVD players, and iPods as well as television —provides 85.6 percent. To be sure, much of Hollywood’s celebrity culture, and the entertainment media that feeds off it, remains rooted in nostalgia for the big screen. Meanwhile, the MBAs that run the studios—and their corporate owners—have come to grips with the cruel reality that the movie business is no longer primarily about movies, it’s about creating intellectual properties—the current term of art for a movie, TV series, or game—that can be sold or licensed for personal entertainment in a raft of different forms and markets. ….

“Congress passed legislation in December requiring that all television signals be converted from analog to digital by Feb. 17, 2009. This means that Americans who don’t want to buy a converter box will need a digital television set. Nowadays, most digital TVs sold are equipped for high-definition. So, in the next few years, a huge part of the population will be able to watch a picture at home—whether it is a football game, a made-for-TV series, or a reality show—that approaches in visual quality the fare in movie theaters. As a result, digital HD television will deprive theaters of a significant part of their audience. The Hollywood studios, as the kings of content, will profit the most from the transformation of the entertainment economy. The theaters and cable operators (unless they can acquire their own content), on the other hand, will have a much more difficult time surviving the increased competition for the clock and wallet of the audience. And the couch potato will have many more, though not necessarily better, reasons for staying home.

Slate.com

London’s independent carries a piece predicting, like Epstein, that the movie biz may soon be in the “dust bin of history:”

http://news.independent.co.uk/media/article335858.ece

I will have a piece up on Mediachannel and other sites this week on media trends in 2006. Its called “Out with the Old, In with the New” and discusses how convergenge is transforming TV.\

YEAR OF PODCASTING

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/technology/4566712.stm

HAVE A SCAM YEAR

In India, the Financial Express predicts 2006 will be a year for scams:

“The year 2006 will hold two important things for India. The greatest of money scams and unbelievable fraud. This year will see funds, loans, investments, partnerships, joint-finance for all the astro signs. The reason being that Jupiter will be in the money sign Scorpio, by Western astrology, in 2006.

“The sign Scorpio is perhaps the most mysterious of all in the zodiac. It deals essentially with sex, sin, salvation. It also deals with life, death, rebirth. Jupiter is the good luck planet. It is also responsible for making things happen. Jupiter will be in Scorpio from October 27, 2005 to November 24, 2006.

“Year 2006 will see a new method of banking, finance, interest, funds, joint finance, wills, codicils, securities, mortgage, instruments of negotiation, siphoning of funds, credit cards, debit cards, mobile banking, secret, subtle securing of money. If you are into stocks, be a little cautious where mutual funds are concerned. Bank robbery, spying of the finances of countries and tycoons, blackmailing, theft, are the other possibilities. The reason is that in 2006, Jupiter in Scorpio will be in bad formation with Saturn in Leo and Neptune in Aquarius by western astrology. Sudden money squeeze, bankruptcy of billionaires and devaluation of money of countries are the possibilities.”

http://www.financialexpress.com/fe_full_story.php?content_id=113162

ASTROLOGICAL PREDICTIONS HERE

From Wendi Meremark of Oregon City:

” Prominent portents show economic breakdown and regeneration, breaking in February. Perhaps starting Jan. 29, the next new moon, recorded in the Chinese calendar as commencing the Year of the Dog, (as was 1994, for comparison, and every 12th-prior year). The Dog this time seems to be dogs in the manger romping, holding their position for spite and sabotage, (inherently unjust), rather than dogs of war, holding positions in dignity and integrity, (inherently just).

The miitarism (Mars) of the year is in the robed sector, decoration of religions and judges, also theatre (i.e., Hollywood) — “the little Dog laughed to see such sport.”

The (mis)fortunes (Jupiter) of 2006 is in banking and real estate. Such abeyances are already appearing in the news. And contributors in your realm can credibly coin more such currency.

The common sense, pop wisdom (media byword) may be remorse, say, ‘buyer’s remorse,’ (would that be Bush supporters?), as Saturn is in introspection, fostering self-health programs. Especially supplanting external ‘cosmetic’ health with internal healthy conscious ‘affirmation’ — not only keeping Hope alive but seeing it dance.

The breakout idea in science (Uranus) is the electrolysis of sea water to collect hydrogen fuel.

And the 2006 Dog being dreamed is mangy and bony, a starving Dog, so consider starvation signals a hallmark year for artists and the Arts.

These astrological predictions are for entertainment only; please, no wagering.”

SAFE BET

Safe Bet: Inside Sources confirm to me that Bill Bennett, a gambler extraordinaire, moralist and right-wing virtue promoter will be joining CNN as a political analyst. My hunch is that his brother, Beltway media lawyer Bob Bennett, who represented Judith Miller in her extrication from jail, did the deal.

www.thecarpetbaggerreport.com/

THE LA TIMES SEES ANOTHER TREND

“Ensnared: Internet Creates New Group of Sexual Addicts: Adding 200 sites a day, Internet pornography seduces with never-ending variety.”

For many people, a peek at an “adult” site offers merely a titillating glimpse into an illicit world.

For others, a peek becomes a moment of respite, a brief vacation from the demands of the real world. Then it becomes a habit. Soon, it is a compulsion that occupies hours and hours every day, shattering careers, marriages and lives.

The addictive nature of cruising the Internet and the obsessive allure of pornography combine to take over their existence. And although many who become addicted have had a history of acting out sexually with prostitutes, phone sex or pornographic magazines and movies, others are pulled in from outside such an orbit.

The Internet, more than any other type of mass medium, seems to be creating a new group of people engaged in compulsive sexual behavior, say psychologists and clinicians. The accessibility, anonymity and affordability — what one researcher calls the “triple A engine” — are reeling in people who would otherwise have never engaged in such behavior”