CAN YOU TRUST THE POLLS?

JIM LEHRER TARGETED

GUANANTAMO GOES OFF BROADWAY

It’s a seismological shake rattle and roll as Washington State’s volcano Mount St Helens threaten to blow its top again. “It’s a matter of time,” say the experts.

In the volcanic presidential race, many Democrats were heartened in an almost adolescent way by John Kerry’s performance in last week’s debate. “We won, we Won,” was the giddy refrain I heard time and again when I wasn’t hearing “Kerry Kicked butt” and other expressions of macho self-righteousness. Calm down. As the late African liberation leader Amilcar Cabral once said; “Claim no easy victories.”

Try to think about what Bush supporters saw through their cultural and political lens. If Dems are heartened, the GOP will become even more aggressive and they have lots more money to spend. This race may be in its final stretch, but it ain’t over yet. No way. Doug Ireland reports that the “FIRST FULL POST-DEBATE POLL HAS STATISTICAL DEAD HEAT”

A new Newsweek poll has Kerry a nose ahead of Bush at 47-45%, a lead within the margin of error. The poll shows the effects of the debate are still fresh–but that Bush retains a lot of strength. ” Of course all of this is debatable. An LA Times poll contradicts that finding somewhat. But, be warned, this battle is still very very close?”

And say it again as I must, polls are often unreliable and subject to change. CNN was carrying reporting this development while carrying a story about the press “frenzy” with polls as if they don’t feed the frenzy with their own poll and obsession with reporting on every up tick and down tick

http://direland.typepad.com/direland/2004/10/first_postdebat.html

MSNBC’s take: “Poll: Kerry pulls even with Bush With voters widely viewing Kerry as the debate’s winner, Bush’s lead in the NEWSWEEK poll has evaporated

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/6159637/site/newsweek/

Truthout spins the Newweek poll as a win for Kerry:

www.truthout.org/docs_04/100404Z.shtml

Most exciting development; The NY Times reports: “The biggest of the swing states reach registration deadlines on Monday, and boards of election are swamped.” Matt Taibbi trashes the coverage in NY Press via AlterNet: “It is a sad commentary on the state of campaign coverage that droves of reporters emerged on Friday with the exact same judgment, delivered with the exact same boxing metaphor.”

www.alternet.org/mediaculture/20069/

YUK TV

On Sunday morning, I flipped on ABC’s This Week only to find Condaleeza Rice once again rationalizing the invasion of Iraq to end Saddam’s “nuclear” program. First she invoked the “intelligence” and then she noted that the same intelligence always “underestimates” what will happen as in the l991 nuclear test in Pakistan . . . Huh? When I could no longer take her robotic performance, I switched over to the Today Show . . . Guess who was on? None other than Condoleeza Rice. “Live.” She was blathering the same blather, word for word as if she had memorized it. Back I went to ABC. And there she still was, prattling and posturing — although there was no title or chyron saying “Prerecorded” or “Dead.” Welcome to the wonderful world of state media.

VEEPSTAKES: EDWARDS V CHENEY V IFILL

This week, Edwards goes after Cheney although David Swanson believes he will also be up against ex-NBC reporter and host of PBS’s Washington Week, Gwen Ifill:. “As Senator John Edwards trains for Tuesday’s debate, the best advice anyone could give him would be to bring his own questions. He should bring a list of topics he intends to talk about and a list of questions he intends to put to Dick Cheney, because if anything can be predicted safely it is that Gwen Ifill will slant her script in favor of the fat man . . .

“What if Edwards criticizes the Vice President on Tuesday during a time of war? How will Ifill react? If Edwards’ coaches are advising him to maintain respect for the office of the Vice Presidency, or some such crap, and if their stand-in for Ifill is asking fair and substantive questions, Edwards will not be prepared for what he must do on Tuesday. He must face this as a debate between himself and the people who need him, on the one hand, and Cheney and Ifill on the other. ”

www.DavidSwanson.com

WHO CONTROLS THE GOP?

Scott Shepard of Cox News Service reports,

“The Rev. Jerry Falwell said yesterday that evangelical Christians, after nearly 25 years of increasing political activism, now control the Republican Party and the fate of President Bush in the November election.

“The Republican Party does not have the head count to elect a president without the support of religious conservatives,” Falwell said at an election training conference of the Christian Coalition. ”

ATTACKING JIM LEHRER

Astounding isn’t it. that PBS’ Jim Lehrer, who must sleep on a balance beam to insure that he never deviate from the middle of the road, has been attacked for bias? The anchor who spent a lifetime avoiding controversy is now controversial. That is a commentary on the political polarization and bullying that we are living with. NewsMax reports: “PBS host Jim Lehrer was challenged Friday morning on claims that he went easy on Sen. John Kerry during Thursday night’s presidential debate, while tossing verbal hand grenades in President Bush’s direction designed to keep him on the defensive. “I don’t know what in the world you’re talking about,” Lehrer told radio host Don Imus, in his only post-debate interview.”

And this as Reuters was reporting: “Moderator Jim Lehrer of PBS received high marks for fairness from 80 percent of both Bush and Kerry supporters taking part in an online poll of 2,800 viewers conducted by the media reform group MediaChannel.org.? For my money, Lehrer could have been more aggressive, that is IF Lehrer can ever be more aggressive.

The best post-debate analysis that I saw was not on any of the news networks but on Bill Maher’s HBO “comedy show” in which he tore Bush and Kerry new parts of their posterior analtomy. He was as funny and pointed as I have ever seen him., Even Tucker Carlson, the bow-tied George Will wanna be, PBS and CNN host was also cutting as he indicted both candidates. He felt Kerry was not really pulling any punches. He also claims to be undecided, perhaps America’s only undecided voter. At least he’s the first one that I have seen who has admitted it, that is if his stance is not just an attention getting ploy, and to be believed.

Kerry’ performance has stirred the hornets of the Bush campaign with Karl Rove coming out of the shadows to personally lead the counter attack at what they are calling the “Kerry Doctrine,” blasting away as only they know how. Meanwhile the “hold your nose and vote for Kerry” camp has a new member in John Perry Barlow who voices the discontent among the Democrats with the me-too aspects of his embrace of the US intervention in Iraq.

“UNFATHOMABLE”

My friend Robert Greewald has produced an informative “un” series of films–Unconstitutional, UnCovered etc . . . Here’s a possible new proposal from Barlow for a film called: “Unfathomable.” He writes:

“Let’s face it, folks, John Kerry is really irritating.

“There. I’ve said it. And, having broken the surface tension on that spleen blister, let me just get the rest of this off my chest once and for all.

“For me, John Kerry’s voice has already started to acquire that special fingernails-on-the-blackboard effect that Bush’s induces in me. The thought of listening to him daily for the next four years makes me feel better about the possible onset of rock ‘n’ roll deafness. His morose Eyesore visage has become a vista almost as tiresome as Bush’s simian smirk. His patrician demeanor reminds one why George Bush has gone to such pains to disguise himself as an illiterate West Texas hick rather than the Yalie he also is.

“Worse, Kerry’s transparently theatrical efforts to out-macho the Republicans make him seem, as a friend recently put it, all dick and no balls. Bush’s problem, to hear Kerry tell it, is that he’s “not tough enough,” despite his being demonstrably willing to bomb civilians in a country that neither attacked us nor expressed any desire to do so. That’s pretty gosh-darned tough, if you ask me . . . Kerry’s failure to capitalize on the failures of the worst administration in my lifetime is unfathomable.” . . .

THE PROTECTING OF EL PRESIDENTE

PHOENIX (AP)

” With the final presidential debate in Tempe less than two weeks away, the FBI is increasing efforts to interview Phoenix-area residents, including Muslims, as part of a nationwide plan to prevent a terrorist attack before the Nov. 2 election, agents said.

“Susan Herskovits, the FBI’s spokeswoman in Phoenix, said this latest push aimed to increase intelligence by contacting as many people as possible — not just Muslims. “We’re worried about an attack on American soil,'’ Herskovits told the East Valley Tribune. “It isn’t really targeting any group”

WARRING WITH WAR

Two bombs rock Baghdad overnight in a world made safer by Saddam in captivity. 8 Dead, 69 wounded . . . This follows more US bombardment in Fallujah, The NY Times says the US has retaken Samarra . . . Wash Post reports: “Influx of Wounded Strains VA Claims Backlog Besets Returning U.S. Troops “?

As elections draw neared, Australians have been on the march protesting their country’s involvement in In Iraq . . . Mouqtada al Sadr now wants to disband his militia and run for office . . . A Simona has now spoken, Reuters reports: ” An Italian aid worker held hostage last month in Iraq said guerrillas there were right to fight U.S.-led forces and their Iraqi “puppet government.” In comments that were bound to annoy Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi’s government, Simona Torretta also called on Rome to withdraw the troops it sent to Iraq to support its U.S. ally.

“I said it before the kidnapping and I repeat it today,” she told Corriere della Sera newspaper in an interview published Friday. “You have to distinguish between terrorism and resistance. The guerrilla war is justified, but I am against the kidnapping of civilians.”

BBC reports:

“An audio tape said to have been recorded by a senior member of the al-Qaeda network has called for attacks on the US and its allies. The speaker is identified as Ayman al-Zawahri, Osama Bin Laden’s deputy. The tape, aired on Arabic television channel al-Jazeera, calls for organized resistance against invading “crusaders” in the Muslim world. In addition to the US and the UK, the speaker singles out Australia, France, Poland, Norway, South Korea and Japan.”

BBC’s security correspondent asks if killing Bin Laden matters anymore. He doubts it and cites several reasons: ” . . . Bin Laden’s jihadist ideology has spread like a virus around the world . . . individuals and networks have been inspired by Bin Laden but may never have trained at his camps in Afghanistan . . . New leaders are emerging on the local level, sometimes with limited links to Bin Laden, who can build their own networks and stage their own attacks.” The LA Times did this same story in much more detail last Sunday.

Spain reports the arrest of two top leaders of the ETA Basque Separatists . . .

LANGUAGE WATCH

When Iraqis first started fighting back against the US occupation, many media outlets called them “thugs.” That quickly gave way to the political term “Terrorists” and them ilitary term “insurgents.” Over the weekend both the Washington Post and the New York Times used “Rebels.” When will “resistance emerge?” Sarah Meyer writes from the UK to say that it is happening there:

“Next on the agenda is to stop referring to people killed in Iraq as “foreign terrorists” and “insurgents.” Channel 4, UK, is now referring (correctly, considering the number of women and children included in the number of civilian dead) as The Resistance (to the American occupation).”

FOX FUDGES, APOLOGIZES

Buzzflash reports: “FOX Chief Political Correspondent Who Interviewed Bush in 2000 and Bragged that His Wife was Volunteering for George, Now — in 2004 — Made Up RNC Message Point Quotes That John Kerry Never Said.”

http://www.buzzflash.com/buzzscripts/buzz.dll/content

Yesterday, the NY Times confirmed the Buzzflash story: “Fabricated Kerry Posting Leads to Apology from Fox News . . . Fox News’s Web site posted a fabricated news item on Friday with quotations attributed to Senator John Kerry that the cable network later said had been written in jest.”

www.nytimes.com/2004/10/03/politics/campaign/03fox.html?oref=login&th

MISSING GLORIA, ANOTHER MEDIA GREAT

As I went through my daily meditation, about the decline of Journalism, I was shocked to learn that a media friend of mine had passed on and I missed it. Maybe because I was traveling or just was mentally comatose. But now that I know, I can’t let a blog go by without remembering and saluting one of my media heroes, GLORIA EMERSON, who died in August at age 75 by her own hand because she feared her Parkinson’s disease would cripple her ability to write.

Whenever I heard Patti Smith sing G-L-O-R-I-A I would think of Gloria Emerson who brought the the Vietnam war alive in the pages of the New York Times and who was a reporter much admired by soldiers and readers alike.

A number of veterans wrote about her in Intervention Magazine, an online publication I have always admired. Examples:

W.D. Ehrhart, author and editor of numerous books including The Madness of It All: Essays on War, Literature and American Life and Carrying the Darkness: The Poetry of the Vietnam War wrote:

Gloria Emerson once described herself to a reporter as “bossy. Ill-tempered. Ferocious. Put all of that down. Do you have it?” And it was all true. But she was also soft-hearted, generous, loyal, and courageous. She had nothing but contempt for generals and presidents, but spent her life giving voice to the voiceless: the privates and corporals and hapless civilians crushed by the powerful. And she was brilliant. Watching her speak without notes to a spellbound audience on the folly of American policy in Vietnam was well worth the quirky late-night calls telling me to put my infant daughter on top of the washing machine and turn it on, I don’t have to do any laundry, just turn on the machine and the vibrations will put Leela right to sleep, goodbye!

“Everyone who ever met Gloria has a ‘Gloria Story’ to tell. She was one of a kind, and I was often thankful I only had one of her to cope with. But it was impossible not to love someone who could write, “I don’t know even now, twenty years after I left [Vietnam], how to harden my heart so it won’t be punctured yet again by the war.” Someone who could say to a discouraged writer, “Don’t keep track of where the other writers are, either behind or ahead. We are all doing what we can, no more no less. It isn’t a race, is it?” Farewell, Gloria. You leave behind many a grieving admirer.”

Jan Barry writes:

“She once tracked down a North Vietnamese soldier, in South Vietnam, and interviewed him,” the Los Angeles Times noted in its Aug. 6 obit on Gloria Emerson. She was as relentless in tracking down U.S. veterans when she came back from a tour as a war correspondent and encouraging them to tell their own stories.

“When I decided to drop out of West Point and become a writer, I had no idea how to do what I had determined to do–which was to write the unvarnished truth about our military misadventure in Indochina. A tremendous influence on my bumbling transition from warrior to writer was Gloria Emerson, the legendary reporter on the Vietnam War, who died in New York.”

Gloria provided one of my references for the Nieman Fellowship years ago and her letter probably had a great deal to do with my selection. She was so generous to so many that way.

The world lost another media great this past weekend. Photographer Richard Avedon who I also had the good fortune of meeting. We met in the home of filmmaker Helen Whitney who profiled him for PBS. My favorite work of hi is still: “Nothing Personal” his l964 big book collaboration with another fave, writer James Baldwin.

YOUR LETTERS

Rick Emilson wrote a long and thoughtful letter from San Diego. Here’s a chunk of it:

“Greetings esteemed Dissector!

“I haven’t written you in a long time, but there are a couple comments that come to mind about two things: 1) the debate itself, and 2), the question of how to discuss the war with the American public. The latter is clearly more important, so it will get more attention from me.

“More important, though, is this issue of How To Discuss The War With People Who Don’t Know Much About It, which you brought up at the top of Friday’s edition.

“I would posit that Kerry’s position isn’t anything like Bush’s. Bush speaks of VICTORY AT ALL COSTS, but he has no idea what that means, save lots of stolen oil and the further looting of the US Treasury. I think he understands Iraq solely in terms of how it affects HIM. Strategy is a lost concept for him and his cadre of “advisors.” This is why he not only doesn’t have a plan for success, he isn’t even capable of creating one. His ideological strictures forbid practical thinking, and he can only lose Iraq. Well, he probably already has lost it . . . in more ways than one.

“Kerry understands the need for “success” in strategic terms. Unlike Vietnam, Iraq is the biggest strategic disaster in American history. As I mentioned, the war is likely already lost. It’s more likely a matter of how many more will die horrific deaths before we finally pull out, than anything else. Of course, the blowback for this disaster will be enormous, and that is why it is necessary, even if it’s unrealistic, to think in terms of prying “success” out of the jaws of disaster. It may not be possible at this point, but if there is a way to make peace and bring stability to that country, it absolutely has to be done.

“So, when pitching this problem to normal people (which is to say not well read in these matters), he has to frame it as a solvable problem. The presstitutes aren’t doing much of anything to enlighten people about this war, and they give BushCO free reign to lie their asses off about it. Indeed, the press corpse is doing this nation a grave, grave disservice by putting their own petty agendas ahead of everything else. Geobbels would be proud of them, no doubt. I can’t say with certainty the best way to deal with this mess is, but politically it seems rather necessary to tell people there is cause for hope in this hopeless situation.

“What parent of a fallen soldier wants to believe his or her death was merely for Dear Leader’s vanity and bank accounts? How many Americans want to accept the notion that not only will nothing good come from it, but many a bad bad thing await us around the corner? How many people, even ourselves at times, really want to accept the realities that now confront us?”

ON CERTAINTY

Ed Menkin passed on a letter he wrote to the Houston Chronicle:

“During the critically important debate that the American people needed to see, there was a defining moment for George W. Bush that every viewer was able to witness and now must acknowledge. That moment arrived when the President began speaking about certainty, tossing the term out there as a character element that he believes he possesses, while trying to imply that Senator Kerry does not — therefore isn’t fit to be President.

“But George W. BushÃŒs performance, as he angrily and repetitively tried to convince the American people that his ‘certainty’ was his greatest strength, revealed the fact that the attribute he refers to as certainty is actually absolutism. And there is a critical and enormously consequential difference between the two.

“When one is certain about something, and evidence clearly shows that you were wrong, you can change your position, or at least acknowledge that you erred.”

LEARN FROM COMEDY CENTRAL

Neb Conner:

“I wonder how the polls would change if the US media (ABC, NBC, CBS, CNN, MSNBC, Fox, and some of the print media), began to hold the president as accountable as they seem to do with his many critics and detractors? They could learn a thing or two from Comedy Central’s “The Daily Show” which frequently plays clips of the president’s speeches alongside his actions which frequently includes the budgets he submits to Congress. The opinion below, “Bush: Deceptive or Delusional?” seems to shed some additional light on the matter. The moral of my story? Don’t get all of your news from one source.”

WHY HE HATES US

Brian Tilley shares his rage again from North of the border:

“Gee . . . I wish I was an amerikan. Then I could brag about how brutal and merciless I was. How I was responsible for unimaginable pain and suffering…how I used torture and murder to bring ‘freedom’ and ‘democracy’ to the ‘uncivilized barbarians’ who had the misfortune to live where there was oil, or whatever I decided I had a ‘right’ to steal. I must admit that I often fantasize about the day when you rotten bastards decide to ‘free’ Canadians from their oil and water.?

I WANNA BE ELECTED

Liz Burbank passed on the words of writer Mickey Z who begins with a refrain from an old rocker:

“We’re all gonna rock to the rules that I make. I wanna be elected.”
–Alice Cooper, “Elected”

“Last night was the opening of the presidential debate season…or as it’s known at Ralph Nader’s house: Passover.

“We got Coke vs. Pepsi. McDonald’s vs. Burger King. MasterCard vs. Visa. General Electric vs. Westinghouse. Yale-educated millionaire war criminal vs. Yale-educated millionaire war criminal.

“The debate pitted an alleged liberal (who supports the Iraq war, the Patriot Act, NAFTA, WTO, welfare repeal, the war on drugs, appointing anti-abortion judges, etc.) against an un-elected president who is somehow seeking re-election.

“The next time someone tells you America has a two-party system…I suggest you demand a recount.”

Jackie Newberry sends a long an item by John Reynolds from Indymedia:

“In the middle of an answer . . . Bush said, “now let me finish” as if someone was interrupting him — yet nobody did — he was talking to the person in his earpiece.

“Listen to the mp3 yourself — or watch the video at c-span. Did anyone out there record the debate — we’ve got to get this video clip out there — the President needs an earpiece to make it thru a debate!

Here’s the video link- ffwd to 40 min 30 sec
rtsp://cspanrm.fplive.net/cspan/project/c04/c04093004_debate1.rm

“I’ve been thinking for years that we need something major to blow this scam wide open, like bush exposing himself on national TV. Last night bush did just that.

“The ‘let me finish’ quip was clearly bush talking to ( probably Rove) in his earpiece — saying let me finish before you give me the next answer. He blows it 60 sec into his 90 sec reply — so no warning lights had gone off and Lehrer had not motioned for him to end as he had plenty of time left.

“My guess is that it’s an implant, not something stuck in his ear.

“Shouldn’t this be enough to warrant a major investigation of some sort- the ‘president’ is so incompetent he needs an earpiece to speak in public? It’s all a house of cards- let this be the first card pulled from the bottom tier — send this fool and his evil cabal to the ICC for War Crimes.”

http://nyc.indymedia.org/newswire/display/125456/index.php

Richard Dechert writes about Mediachannel’s campaign scorecard:

“Thanks for providing it; overall I enjoyed scoring mine. But I was uncomfortable with and frustrated by only 3 options on some of the rating scales. In my judgement 5-point scales would yield more nuanced and accurate yet easy to compile results.

“Having twice seen the the 9/24 edition of “NOW with Bill Moyers” and its strong critique of the 2000 Presidential debates and Lehrer’s moderation of them, his positive ratings for last eve’s debate are indeed interesting. Keep up the great work.”

RESOURCES: NEW FROM NOAM CHOMSKY

“Perhaps the most threatening document of our time is the US National Security Strategy of September 2002. Its implementation in Iraq has already taken countless lives and shaken the international system to the core.”

http://207.44.245.159/article6996.htm

Also check out the cover story in Harpers on the 911 Commission report describing it as a “whitewash.”

GUANTANAMO, GUANTANAMO

And as long as I am making recommendations let me tell you about a play I saw last night. Its called GUANTANAMO ‘ Honor Bound toe Defend Freedom presented by the Culture project at 45 Bleecker Street. The play was written by Victoria Britain, a great Guardian journalist and Gillian Slovo, author and daughter of Ruth First the South African journalist-scholar detained in not dissimilar circumstances under apartheid. Based on spoken evidence and faithful to the testimony, phone calls and letters of British detainees, some of who have been released, it is a powerful and shocking performance pieces that dramatizes the experience of alleged terrorists.

South Africa’s Archbishop Tutu participated in the play this weekend, and afterwards commented on the issues it raises in a conversation with Amy Goodman of Democracy Now in a “talk back” taped live before the audience. He drew parallels with South Africa and confessed his own shock at learning the details of these outrages. These are detainee stories that our media has not covered as well as the British media has. Tutu challenged the audience to get involved and speak out. (Listen and watch for Amy’s program on the show.)

Meanwhile in Britain, BBC reports “Around 200 human rights campaigners staged a protest outside Belmarsh prison on Sunday at the detention of 11 foreign nationals” held without trial. Belmarsh is Britain’s own Guantanamo.

Finally, Shock of Shock. The New Republic Online reports that our born again President, defender of the nation and upholder of the faith does not go to church. Imagine.

Keep your letters coming . . . We need your help in get more people reading this blog and visiting Mediachannel. If you find what I do of value, tell ten friends. Write: dissector@mediachannel.org